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Us economic recessions dating

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The deficiencies of GDP as a measure are welldocumented by leading economists Kuznets, Tobin, Tinbergen and many others; but, unfortunately, decision-making still remains largely based on GDP, valid during 1930-70 perhaps, but certainly inappropriate today.

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The efficiency of our tools is an index of our social development. Many tools acquire power through their use in or capacity for measurement, such as the calendar, weighing scale, measuring rod, astrolabe, surveyor’s theodolite, carbon dating, and DNA fingerprinting.

Developed independently in India and Mexico, it reached Europe via Arabia only in the 10th century.

One need only try adding and multiplying Roman numerals to realize how greatly the introduction of Hindu-Arabic numerals, the zero, and the decimal place enhanced the capacity for accounting and the growth of trade.

The GDP growth rate is in the healthy 2-3 percent range. A well-managed economy can remain in the expansion phase for years. The expansion phase nears its end when the economy overheats. When it turns negative, that is what economists call a recession. Businesses wait to hire new workers until they are sure the recession is over. ​The National Bureau of Economic Research determines business cycle stages using quarterly GDP growth rates.

Gross domestic product, which measures economic output, is increasing. It doesn’t happen until toward the end of the contraction phase because it's a lagging indicator. That's the month when the economy transitions from the contraction phase to the expansion phase. (Source: "The National Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions," National Bureau of Economic Research.)The business cycle's four phases can be so severe that they’re also called the boom and bust cycle.